End-to-end Modelling and Indicators for BIOdiversity Scenarios
Ecosystem models play a prominent role in helping to better understand the complex ecosystem effects of various key drivers such as fishing and climate, and in simulating how the future may unfold under various "what if?" scenarios. While several studies have already projected into the future the effects of climate change or fishing on marine biodiversity (e.g. Cheung et al. 2009, Myers and Worm 2003), there is still a lack of integrated approaches that take into account potential combined effects of key drivers, and feedbacks within the human-environment system. Climate and fishing affect different components and attributes of the ecosystem in different ways, e.g. physical properties on growth, reproduction, spatial distribution of fish and plankton, or fishing on the species composition and size distribution of fish. Considering that all these processes and their interactions may operate simultaneously, there is a strong demand for models which are able to handle multiple drivers, impacts and feedbacks that are expected under global change.
The project will provide a modelling tool in support of the decision-making process in the context of global change. By integrating the whole ecosystem components and accounting for feedbacks within the human-environment system, from the climate up to the fisheries, the proposed modelling approach is aimed at improving the dialog between scientists and managers. Models that will be used in this project are OSMOSE-E2E and EwE modelling as test laboratories to make further progress and document the behaviour of a set of biodiversity indicators under different scenarios of global change and fisheries management options. By doing so, the present project will strongly contribute to the global scientific support to the European Commission on the Marine Strategy Framework Directive, in particular on the "biodiversity" attribute for determining "good environmental status" of European marine ecosystems (Cardoso et al. 2010).
Contact : Yunne-Jai Shin, IRD Sète.